I went 10-6 last week straight up, and 5-10-1 against the spread. For the season, that puts me at 123-69 straight up and 90-94-8 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.com.
What follows are my picks for the NFL’s Week 14:
*Thursday, December 6*
Denver (9-3) at Oakland (3-9) – 8:20 p.m. (Line: Denver by 10)
The Broncos have won seven straight games, but the last three have been fairly close. The Raiders have lost five in a row.
—RJ’s Pick: Denver by 5
*Sunday, December 9*
St. Louis (5-6-1) at Buffalo (5-7) – 1:00 p.m. (Line: BUFFALO BY 3)
The Rams are 0-3 against AFC East teams so far this year. The Bills are 3-2 at home.
—RJ’s Pick: Buffalo by 6
Dallas (6-6) at Cincinnati (7-5) – 1:00 p.m. (Line: CINCINNATI BY 3.5)
This is a huge game for both teams. The Cowboys haven’t held an opponent under 20 points since Week Nine (a loss). The Bengals have won four in a row.
—RJ’s Pick: Cincinnati by 7
Kansas City (2-10) at Cleveland (4-8) – 1:00 p.m. (Line: CLEVELAND BY 5.5)
Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles has rushed for at least 100 yards in three of his last four games. Browns rookie WR Josh Gordon has caught 15 passes for 229 yards over his last three games.
—RJ’s Pick: Cleveland by 2
Tennessee (4-8) at Indianapolis (8-4) – 1:00 p.m. (Line: INDIANAPOLIS BY 5)
The Titans are 0-4 against divisional opponents so far this season. The Colts are 5-1 at home.
—RJ’s Pick: Indianapolis by 8
Chicago (8-4) at Minnesota (6-6) – 1:00 p.m. (Line: Chicago by 3)
The Bears have lost three of their last four games. Their lone victory in that stretch came against Minnesota. The Vikings are 5-1 at home this year. Quarterback Christian Ponder has thrown for more than 200 yards just twice in his last six games, and for more than 150 yards just three times in his last six outings.
—RJ’s Pick: Minnesota by 3
Philadelphia (3-9) at Tampa Bay (6-6) – 1:00 p.m. (Line: TAMPA BAY BY 7)
The Eagles have lost eight straight. The Buccaneers have scored at least 23 points in every game since Week Four…when they scored 22.
—RJ’s Pick: Tampa Bay by 11
Baltimore (9-3) at Washington (6-6) – 1:00 p.m. (Line: WASHINGTON BY 2.5)
Ravens QB Joe Flacco has thrown just two touchdown passes in his last three games. His passer ratings in his last three games are 75.5, 86.6, and just 61.9 last week. The Redskins have won three straight.
—RJ’s Pick: Washington by 8
Atlanta (11-1) at Carolina (3-9) – 1:00 p.m. (Line: Atlanta by 3.5)
The Falcons have already clinched the NFC South. They can clinch home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with just two more victories. The Panthers at just 1-5 at home this season.
—RJ’s Pick: Atlanta by 7
New York Jets (5-7) at Jacksonville (2-10) – 1:00 p.m. (Line: New York Jets by 2.5)
As of this writing, no one knows who will be starting under center for the Jets this week. It could be Mark Sanchez, who was benched last week after throwing three interceptions and completing just 48 percent of his passes for a QB rating of 21.4. It could be Greg McElroy, who replaced Sanchez and led the Jets to their only score of the game. Or it could even be Tim Tebow, who was not active last week due to some broken ribs. The Jaguars have the NFL’s second worst point differential.
—RJ’s Pick: New York Jets by 9
San Diego (4-8) at Pittsburgh (7-5) – 1:00 p.m. (Line: No Line)
The Chargers have lost their last four games. The Steelers are 4-1 at home this season. There was no line for this matchup at the time of publication.
—RJ’s Pick: Pittsburgh by 14
Miami (5-7) at San Francisco (8-3-1) – 4:05 p.m. (Line: SAN FRANCISCO BY 10)
Dolphins left tackle Jake Long suffered a triceps injury last week, and could be out for the remainder of the season. Colin Kaepernick will remain the starting quarterback for the 49ers this week, despite making some questionable decisions in last week’s loss to St. Louis.
—RJ’s Pick: San Francisco by 6
Arizona (4-8) at Seattle (7-5) – 4:25 p.m. (Line: SEATTLE BY 10)
The Cardinals have lost eight games in a row. The Seahawks are undefeated at home this season, but are 0-3 against divisional opponents.
—RJ’s Pick: Seattle by 4
New Orleans (5-7) at New York Giants (7-5) – 4:25 p.m. (Line: NEW YORK GIANTS BY 5)
The Saints need to win their last four games to have any realistic chance of making the playoffs. They are just 2-4 on the road this season. The Giants have lost three of their last four and are at risk of falling out of first place in the NFC East.
—RJ’s Pick: New York Giants by 1
Detroit (4-8) at Green Bay (8-4) – 8:20 p.m. (Line: GREEN BAY BY 6.5)
The Lions have lost four in a row, including three straight home games in which they held a fourth quarter lead. The Packers are 5-1 at home this season. I strongly discourage readers from taking my advice on this pick.
—RJ’s Pick: Detroit by 3
*Monday, December 10*
Houston (11-1) at New England (9-3) – 8:30 p.m. (Line: NEW ENGLAND BY 3.5)
This is quite possibly a preview of the AFC Championship Game. The Texans have the league’s second best offense in terms of points scored per game; the Patriots have the best. The Texans are ranked fourth in total yards of offense; the Patriots are ranked first. The Texans, however, are allowing just 18.4 points per game, while the Patriots are allowing 21.7.
Key questions: How many of Tom Brady’s passes will J.J. Watt get a hand on? How many times will J.J. Watt get his hands on Tom Brady? Which Texans defense will show up? The one that gave up 42 points to Green Bay, 37 points to Jacksonville, and 31 points to Detroit? Or the one that held Chicago to 6 points, Buffalo to 9, Tennessee to 10, and Baltimore to 13?
—RJ’s Pick: New England by 10
[If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds here.]